Ukrainian Drone Attacks Against Russia Increase As Zelenskiy Hints At Change In Tactics
Moscow's business district, dominated by modern glass-and-steel towers, was struck twice this week by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that left top-story windows damaged and citizens shaken, but did not result in fatalities.
Moscow pinned the blame on Kyiv, which has historically denied responsibility for attacks inside Russia. There have now been at least six drone attacks in or around Moscow since May.
Ukraine has been stepping up small-scale UAV attacks inside Russia recently, raising questions about whether Kyiv has made significant advances in homegrown technology and if it's on the road toward carrying out bigger attacks in the near future, analysts say.
On July 30, in between the two drone strikes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hinted that Russia would experience more attacks at home, which some experts interpreted as thinly veiled confirmation of Kyiv's responsibility for prior attacks.
"Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia -- to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process," Zelenskiy said.
Kyiv has also struck other regions of Russia closer to the border with Ukraine over the past few months as well, including a naval base in Novorosiisk on the Black Sea on August 4.
John Herbst, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003-06, said Zelenskiy's comments reflect "a certain amount of confidence that Ukraine can carry out future attacks and that it will help them."
Analysts say the Ukrainian drone attacks to date -- which have consisted of a few UAVs carrying small payloads -- have mainly been for psychological and public-relations effect.
The Russian public largely supports the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine or is complacent about it. Kyiv may be hoping that in bringing the war to Russians' doorsteps, they will lose confidence in their government and the war.
But analysts say Ukraine's attacks inside Russia may advance from "cosmetic" with little damage to something more serious and that could create tension with the West and Washington in particular.
The United States and some of its European allies have been anxious about Ukraine striking inside Russia lest it trigger Russian escalation, especially with Western weapons, a view that many supporters of Kyiv say only plays into President Vladimir Putin's hands.
The United States has refused to give Ukraine its Reaper MQ-9 drones or long-range precision missiles, known as ATACMS, for fear Ukraine could use them to strike targets within Russia.
Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said earlier this year that Ukraine had "no reservations" about striking military targets inside Russia that have a direct relation to the war. Other Ukrainian officials have made similar comments since then.
The July 30 and August 1 attacks in the Moscow business district targeted a skyscraper home to three ministries that analysts say play a role in the war.
In an interview with RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service ahead of a summit in Saudi Arabia this weekend to discuss a resolution to the war, Ihor Zhovkva, deputy chief of staff of Zelenskiy’s administration, claimed that countries of the so-called Global South -- which includes Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia -- voiced no criticism of Ukrainian attacks inside Russia. However, those countries, aside from Turkey, do not supply Ukraine with lethal weapons.
In the meantime, Ukraine has been doubling down on efforts to develop its own long-range drone and missile capabilities, something the recent strikes in Moscow attest to, analysts say.
"These attacks reveal Ukraine's resiliency in designing an asymmetric long-range strike deterrent to address a need not currently being met by Western military assistance," Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute who focuses on military issues, said in an August 2 note.
David Sharp, an Israeli-based military expert, told Current Time that Ukraine was on the path to replicating the type of large-scale drone attacks that Russia regularly carries out on Ukrainian cities.
"The mass use of ammunition of this level against Russia...has not been achieved yet, but Ukraine is on the way to realizing this goal," Sharp said.
On August 5, following a second successful amphibious drone attack in two days on Russian ships in the Black Sea, Danilov said Ukrainian capabilities to strike Russia were becoming increasingly competitive.
"With each new combat mission, Ukrainian combat UAVs and naval drones become more accurate, operators more experienced, combat coordination more effective, and manufacturers get opportunities to improve tactical and technical characteristics," Danilov wrote on social media. "August was particularly successful for Ukrainian hunters."
Aside from drones, Ukraine may be modifying air-defense missiles to eventually hit Russia, Kasapoglu wrote.
Mark Cancian, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says he doesn't expect Ukraine to develop and launch powerful new drones in the short term.
"It is hard to make a long-range drone with a high payload and accuracy. It is expensive and complicated," he said.
Ukraine has developed and deployed into Russia at least three drone models, The New York Times reported this week, citing its own analysis of video footage.
The country has a deep pool of aerospace and engineering expertise it can tap into to accelerate progress on drones. Ukraine is home to the Antonov Design Bureau, maker of the world's largest aircraft, as well as Motor Sich, a renowned jet-engine maker.
Ukraine plans to increase its investment in drone technology by nearly 10-fold this year to over $1 billion, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last month. Ukraine’s budget is strapped due to the war and the drone industry is partially supported by private funding.
As for the development of long-range weapons, Cancian says that Ukraine could potentially repurpose its Neptune missile, especially if it receives technical help from the West.
Cancian said it would be a "big shift" in tactics if Ukraine carried out an attack with a big payload inside Russia that hit a valuable target. "At some point they will do it," he added.
As long as it is a legitimate target hit with a Ukrainian-made weapon, the West is likely to keep quiet, Cancian said.
Herbst, who is now an analyst at the Atlantic Council, said Zelenskiy's comments on July 30 may have been a "trial balloon" to test the West's reaction to future hits inside Russia.
He said that while there is an "instinctual understanding" in Washington that Ukraine must win, there is a counter-instinct of "let's avoid escalation."
[please be sure to consider clicking the support button, to support this web project and related efforts]
Key Words: Ukraine, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Drones
Any health-related, legal, scientific, investment- or business-related, or other content provided on these site(s) or domain(s) is for informational purposes only, and/or to invite further reflection, research and analysis, and not for the purpose of providing medical, legal or any other kind of professional advice. All investment activity can carry risk, and these sites and domains assert no opionion or guidance regarding any investor's undertaking of any investment decision. Under no circumstances do these sites or domain(s), establish an attorney-client relationship or any similar or analogous type of relationship, professional or otherwise. Use of these site(s) and domain(s) is only permitted under, and constitutes agreement with, those or similar conditions and limitations, as expressed now, or as might be revised in the future.