Markets Wednesday 9.30.26 — Oil and treasury yields up, stocks diverge, with NASDAQ rising for the day, month and quarter, but with the Dow falling; S&P 500 rises for quarter but declines for Wednesday and September

Artist's Rendition of Stock Market Chart with Line Graph and Numbers adapted from uscc.gov image

Wednesday trading closed out the month of September and the third quarter of 2026, a mixed bag for U.S. stocks, cushioned in part by softer-than-expected inflation numbers, and GDP growth exceeding expectations.

Perhaps as expected, there has been a kind of schism developing between tech stocks and others.  Wall Street Road Sign, New York Stock Exchange Columns, adapted from gao.gov imageThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has been falling overall, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ has been climbing, in part due to the stoking of a kind of “AI” craze.

  • On the day — The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite climbed 0.2%, but the Dow dropped 0.9% and the benchmark S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
  • For September —  The NASDAQ rose 1.9%, the Dow dropped 4.3% and the S&P 500 fell 0.5%.
  • Third Quarter — The NASDAQ rose 2.5%, the Dow dropped 4.3% and the S&P 500 rose 2.0%.

The 10-year Treasury yield, benchmark for mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and interest rates on various loans, rose another 5 basis points from late Tuesday, above 5.30% late-afternoon.

Oil prices climbed, hanging upon events and perceptions relating to the Middle East. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 1.4% to $90.90 by late afternoon ET. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to $103.50 in a similar time frame.  Meanwhile, President Donald Trump indicated that he did not intend to ease Iran sanctions.

Prior to trading, it was announced that August inflation was 3.4% year-over-year, below expectations of 3.7%, while third quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised to 2.2%, upward from 1.5%

Ironically, would-be concerns about “AI” dangers perhaps serve as a pretext to amplify the notion that so-called “AI” actually exists. That is, it loudly implies that there, in fact, has been attained such a thing as so-called manmade “intelligence,” as opposed to simply a faster, more automated — often unpredictably defect-prone — set of programs that are a kind of helter-skelter type of search engine. The added component for the mirage, of course, is designing the programs to spew results layered with verbiage that attempts to imitates somewhat glib — often annoying, unrealistic and unprofessional — speech patterns, and trained to insert text for the pronouns “I” or “me.”

Reputed dangers seem to center around so-called “AI’s” automated functions, sometimes turning it into a kind of hacking malware that reconfigures its own parameters, or targets third parties for coding sabotage.  Of course, any machine that is given diverse ranges of options,and allowed to keep running, or go in various directions, without being steered or controlled by humans is bound to wreck havoc in time.  For example, a self-propelled lawn mower that ends up mowing down flower beds is not necessarily “intelligent,” just poorly designed and managed in a derelict manner.

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Artist's Rendition of Stock Market Chart with Line Graph and Numbers adapted from uscc.gov image

Wall Street Road Sign, New York Stock Exchange Columns, adapted from gao.gov image

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